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Marsaxlokk vs Kercem Ajax — FA Trophy 2020

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
AET
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kercem Ajax
Kercem Ajax
12/8/2021FA TrophyFA Trophy · Preliminary RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marsaxlokk61%
×Draw16%
Kercem Ajax23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsaxlokk
3.25
Kercem Ajax
2.00

Marsaxlokk creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Marsaxlokk
1.83
Kercem Ajax
2.67

allows per match

Marsaxlokk
1.33
Kercem Ajax
4.67

finishing

Marsaxlokk+0.00on par
Kercem Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsaxlokk ↓

Kercem Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Marsaxlokk or draw
77%
Marsaxlokk or Kercem Ajax
84%
Draw or Kercem Ajax
39%

Winning margin

Marsaxlokk wins by 2+
42%
Kercem Ajax wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Marsaxlokk 1+ goals
96%
Marsaxlokk 2+ goals
83%
Marsaxlokk 3+ goals
61%
Kercem Ajax 1+ goals
86%
Kercem Ajax 2+ goals
59%
Kercem Ajax 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Marsaxlokk (draw refunded)
73%
Kercem Ajax (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsaxlokk at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Kercem Ajax away — creates 2.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsaxlokk attack 1.83 + Kercem Ajax defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.25

Kercem Ajax attack 2.67 + Marsaxlokk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Marsaxlokk scores more
61%
level
16%
Kercem Ajax scores more
23%

Marsaxlokk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Marsaxlokk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marsaxlokk vs Kercem Ajax

Marsaxlokk beat Kercem Ajax 5-2 in FA Trophy on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Victor Tedesco Stadium in Hamrun.