Maroons 5–0 Gaddafi: Result & Stats

Maroons

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gaddafi

12/30/2023

Premier League · Round 13Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Maroons55%

×Draw27%

Gaddafi18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaroonsExpected goals in this matchGaddafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.71

Maroons

1.47

Gaddafi

0.71

Maroons creates 107% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 44 away

1.11

creates per match

0.66

0.76

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Maroons

1.11

Gaddafi

0.66

allows per match

Maroons

0.76

Gaddafi

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maroons+0.00on par

Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maroons ↓

Gaddafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Maroons or draw

82%

Maroons or Gaddafi

73%

Draw or Gaddafi

45%

Winning margin

Maroons wins by 2+

28%

Gaddafi wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Maroons 1+ goals

77%

Maroons 2+ goals

43%

Maroons 3+ goals

18%

Gaddafi 1+ goals

51%

Gaddafi 2+ goals

16%

Gaddafi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Maroons (draw refunded)

75%

Gaddafi (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maroons at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.76 · 71 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maroons attack 1.11 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + Maroons defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Maroons scores more

55%

level

27%

Gaddafi scores more

18%

Maroons at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Maroons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff