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Maroons vs Calvary — Premier League 2019

Maroons
Maroons
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Calvary
Calvary
10/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maroons60%
×Draw27%
Calvary14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maroons
1.46
Calvary
0.55

Maroons creates 165% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 15 away

creates per match

Maroons
1.11
Calvary
0.33

allows per match

Maroons
0.76
Calvary
1.80

finishing

Maroons+0.00on par
Calvary+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maroons ↓

Calvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Maroons or draw
86%
Maroons or Calvary
73%
Draw or Calvary
40%

Winning margin

Maroons wins by 2+
31%
Calvary wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maroons 1+ goals
77%
Maroons 2+ goals
43%
Maroons 3+ goals
18%
Calvary 1+ goals
42%
Calvary 2+ goals
11%
Calvary 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Maroons (draw refunded)
81%
Calvary (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maroons at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.76 · 71 matches

Calvary away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maroons attack 1.11 + Calvary defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Calvary attack 0.33 + Maroons defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Maroons scores more
60%
level
27%
Calvary scores more
14%

Maroons at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Maroons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maroons vs Calvary

Maroons and Calvary drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 22, 2025.