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Maroons vs Buhimba Saints — Premier League 2019

Maroons
Maroons
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Buhimba Saints
Buhimba Saints
3/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Maroons69%
×Draw20%
Buhimba Saints11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maroons
1.98
Buhimba Saints
0.63

Maroons creates 214% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 14 away

creates per match

Maroons
1.11
Buhimba Saints
0.50

allows per match

Maroons
0.76
Buhimba Saints
2.86

finishing

Maroons+0.00on par
Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maroons ↓

Buhimba Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Maroons or draw
89%
Maroons or Buhimba Saints
80%
Draw or Buhimba Saints
31%

Winning margin

Maroons wins by 2+
43%
Buhimba Saints wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maroons 1+ goals
86%
Maroons 2+ goals
59%
Maroons 3+ goals
31%
Buhimba Saints 1+ goals
47%
Buhimba Saints 2+ goals
13%
Buhimba Saints 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Maroons (draw refunded)
86%
Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maroons at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.76 · 71 matches

Buhimba Saints away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maroons attack 1.11 + Buhimba Saints defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Buhimba Saints attack 0.50 + Maroons defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Maroons scores more
69%
level
20%
Buhimba Saints scores more
11%

Maroons at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Maroons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maroons vs Buhimba Saints

Maroons beat Buhimba Saints 1-0 in Premier League on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium in Kampala.