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Maroons vs Blacks Power — Premier League 2019

Maroons
Maroons
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Blacks Power
Blacks Power
11/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Maroons56%
×Draw27%
Blacks Power17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maroons
1.45
Blacks Power
0.67

Maroons creates 116% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 14 away

creates per match

Maroons
1.11
Blacks Power
0.57

allows per match

Maroons
0.76
Blacks Power
1.79

finishing

Maroons+0.00on par
Blacks Power+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maroons ↓

Blacks Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maroons or draw
83%
Maroons or Blacks Power
73%
Draw or Blacks Power
44%

Winning margin

Maroons wins by 2+
29%
Blacks Power wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Maroons 1+ goals
77%
Maroons 2+ goals
42%
Maroons 3+ goals
18%
Blacks Power 1+ goals
49%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
15%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Maroons (draw refunded)
76%
Blacks Power (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maroons at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.76 · 71 matches

Blacks Power away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maroons attack 1.11 + Blacks Power defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Blacks Power attack 0.57 + Maroons defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Maroons scores more
56%
level
27%
Blacks Power scores more
17%

Maroons at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maroons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Maroons 1–3 Blacks Power

Blacks Power beat Maroons 3-1 in Premier League on November 15, 2022.

The match was played at Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium in Kampala.