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Maroons vs Arua Hill — Premier League 2019

Maroons
Maroons
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arua Hill
Arua Hill
D. Ojok 72'
A. Eturude 7'
3/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Maroons48%
×Draw29%
Arua Hill22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maroons
1.27
Arua Hill
0.76

Maroons creates 67% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

creates per match

Maroons
1.11
Arua Hill
0.75

allows per match

Maroons
0.76
Arua Hill
1.42

finishing

Maroons+0.00on par
Arua Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maroons ↓

Arua Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maroons or draw
78%
Maroons or Arua Hill
71%
Draw or Arua Hill
52%

Winning margin

Maroons wins by 2+
22%
Arua Hill wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maroons 1+ goals
72%
Maroons 2+ goals
36%
Maroons 3+ goals
14%
Arua Hill 1+ goals
53%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
18%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maroons (draw refunded)
69%
Arua Hill (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maroons at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.76 · 71 matches

Arua Hill away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maroons attack 1.11 + Arua Hill defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arua Hill attack 0.75 + Maroons defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maroons scores more
48%
level
29%
Arua Hill scores more
22%

Maroons at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maroons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Eturude
32'
F. Amaku
60'
D. Niwamanya← D. Niwamanya
70'
K. Isaac← K. Isaac
70'
D. Ojok← D. Ojok
72'
D. Ojok
80'
R. Mpande← R. Mpande
80'
B. Omirambe← B. Omirambe
80'
K. Brian← K. Brian
81'
87'
R. Matovu
90+2'
J. Kamwesiga← J. Kamwesiga
90+2'
S. Kabuye← S. Kabuye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maroons vs Arua Hill

Maroons beat Arua Hill 2-0 in Premier League on March 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Eturude (7'), D. Ojok (72').

The match was played at Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium in Kampala.