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Markt Allhau vs St. Margarethen / Bur — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
CANC
00:00
St. Margarethen / Bur
St. Margarethen / Bur
4/25/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 23z-immobilien arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Markt Allhau35%
×Draw24%
St. Margarethen / Bur41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Markt Allhau
1.41
St. Margarethen / Bur
1.55

St. Margarethen / Bur creates 10% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 86 away

creates per match

Markt Allhau
1.00
St. Margarethen / Bur
1.31

allows per match

Markt Allhau
1.79
St. Margarethen / Bur
1.81

finishing

Markt Allhau+0.00on par
St. Margarethen / Bur+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Markt Allhau ↓

St. Margarethen / Bur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Markt Allhau or draw
59%
Markt Allhau or St. Margarethen / Bur
76%
Draw or St. Margarethen / Bur
65%

Winning margin

Markt Allhau wins by 2+
16%
St. Margarethen / Bur wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Markt Allhau 1+ goals
76%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
41%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
17%
St. Margarethen / Bur 1+ goals
79%
St. Margarethen / Bur 2+ goals
46%
St. Margarethen / Bur 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
46%
St. Margarethen / Bur (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Markt Allhau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

St. Margarethen / Bur away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Markt Allhau attack 1.00 + St. Margarethen / Bur defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

St. Margarethen / Bur attack 1.31 + Markt Allhau defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Markt Allhau scores more
35%
level
24%
St. Margarethen / Bur scores more
41%

St. Margarethen / Bur at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "St. Margarethen / Bur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Markt Allhau vs St. Margarethen / Bur — Match Preview

Markt Allhau face St. Margarethen / Bur on April 25, 2020 in this Landesliga - Burgenland fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Markt Allhau host St. Margarethen / Bur at z-immobilien arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.