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Markt Allhau vs Ritzing — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
FT
1 – 4
Ritzing
Ritzing
4/30/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 24Sportplatz UFC Markt Allhau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Markt Allhau23%
×Draw22%
Ritzing55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Markt Allhau
1.20
Ritzing
1.98

Ritzing creates 65% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 50 away

creates per match

Markt Allhau
1.00
Ritzing
2.16

allows per match

Markt Allhau
1.79
Ritzing
1.40

finishing

Markt Allhau+0.00on par
Ritzing+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Markt Allhau ↓

Ritzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Markt Allhau or draw
45%
Markt Allhau or Ritzing
78%
Draw or Ritzing
77%

Winning margin

Markt Allhau wins by 2+
9%
Ritzing wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Markt Allhau 1+ goals
70%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
34%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
12%
Ritzing 1+ goals
86%
Ritzing 2+ goals
59%
Ritzing 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
29%
Ritzing (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Markt Allhau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Ritzing away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Markt Allhau attack 1.00 + Ritzing defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ritzing attack 2.16 + Markt Allhau defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Markt Allhau scores more
23%
level
22%
Ritzing scores more
55%

Ritzing at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ritzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Markt Allhau vs Ritzing

Ritzing beat Markt Allhau 4-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz UFC Markt Allhau in Markt Allhau.