Markt Allhau 1–1 Leithaprodersdorf: Result & Stats

Markt Allhau

FT

1 – 1

Leithaprodersdorf

3/18/2023

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 18Sportplatz UFC Markt Allhau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Markt Allhau30%

×Draw23%

Leithaprodersdorf46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Markt AllhauExpected goals in this matchLeithaprodersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.75

Markt Allhau

1.37

Leithaprodersdorf

1.75

Leithaprodersdorf creates 28% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 87 away

1.00

creates per match

1.70

1.79

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Markt Allhau

1.00

Leithaprodersdorf

1.70

allows per match

Markt Allhau

1.79

Leithaprodersdorf

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Leithaprodersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Markt Allhau ↓

Leithaprodersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Markt Allhau or draw

54%

Markt Allhau or Leithaprodersdorf

77%

Draw or Leithaprodersdorf

70%

Winning margin

Markt Allhau wins by 2+

13%

Leithaprodersdorf wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Markt Allhau 1+ goals

75%

Markt Allhau 2+ goals

40%

Markt Allhau 3+ goals

16%

Leithaprodersdorf 1+ goals

83%

Leithaprodersdorf 2+ goals

52%

Leithaprodersdorf 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)

39%

Leithaprodersdorf (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Markt Allhau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Leithaprodersdorf away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.74 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Markt Allhau attack 1.00 + Leithaprodersdorf defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Leithaprodersdorf attack 1.70 + Markt Allhau defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Markt Allhau scores more

30%

level

23%

Leithaprodersdorf scores more

46%

Leithaprodersdorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leithaprodersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff