Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Markt Allhau vs Horitschon — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
FT
2 – 1
Horitschon
Horitschon
8/28/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 2z-immobilien arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Markt Allhau37%
×Draw23%
Horitschon41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Markt Allhau
1.67
Horitschon
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 88 away

creates per match

Markt Allhau
1.00
Horitschon
1.76

allows per match

Markt Allhau
1.79
Horitschon
2.33

finishing

Markt Allhau+0.00on par
Horitschon+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Markt Allhau ↓

Horitschon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Markt Allhau or draw
59%
Markt Allhau or Horitschon
77%
Draw or Horitschon
63%

Winning margin

Markt Allhau wins by 2+
18%
Horitschon wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Markt Allhau 1+ goals
81%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
50%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
23%
Horitschon 1+ goals
83%
Horitschon 2+ goals
53%
Horitschon 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
47%
Horitschon (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Markt Allhau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Horitschon away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.33 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Markt Allhau attack 1.00 + Horitschon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Horitschon attack 1.76 + Markt Allhau defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Markt Allhau scores more
37%
level
23%
Horitschon scores more
41%

Horitschon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Horitschon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Markt Allhau vs Horitschon

Markt Allhau beat Horitschon 2-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on August 28, 2020.

The match was played at z-immobilien arena in Markt Allhau.