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Horitschon vs Markt Allhau — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Horitschon
Horitschon
FT
4 – 3
Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
10/30/2021Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 14Sportplatz Horitschon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Horitschon50%
×Draw22%
Markt Allhau29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horitschon
2.04
Markt Allhau
1.51

Horitschon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Horitschon
1.89
Markt Allhau
1.37

allows per match

Horitschon
1.65
Markt Allhau
2.20

finishing

Horitschon+0.00on par
Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horitschon ↓

Markt Allhau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Horitschon or draw
71%
Horitschon or Markt Allhau
78%
Draw or Markt Allhau
50%

Winning margin

Horitschon wins by 2+
29%
Markt Allhau wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Horitschon 1+ goals
87%
Horitschon 2+ goals
60%
Horitschon 3+ goals
33%
Markt Allhau 1+ goals
78%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
44%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Horitschon (draw refunded)
63%
Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horitschon at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horitschon attack 1.89 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + Horitschon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Horitschon scores more
50%
level
22%
Markt Allhau scores more
29%

Horitschon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Horitschon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horitschon vs Markt Allhau

Horitschon beat Markt Allhau 4-3 in Landesliga - Burgenland on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Horitschon in Horitschon.