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Markt Allhau vs Deutschkreutz — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
FT
0 – 2
Deutschkreutz
Deutschkreutz
10/9/2021Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 11z-immobilien arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Markt Allhau30%
×Draw24%
Deutschkreutz46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Markt Allhau
1.35
Deutschkreutz
1.72

Deutschkreutz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 86 away

creates per match

Markt Allhau
1.00
Deutschkreutz
1.65

allows per match

Markt Allhau
1.79
Deutschkreutz
1.70

finishing

Markt Allhau+0.00on par
Deutschkreutz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Markt Allhau ↓

Deutschkreutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Markt Allhau or draw
54%
Markt Allhau or Deutschkreutz
76%
Draw or Deutschkreutz
70%

Winning margin

Markt Allhau wins by 2+
13%
Deutschkreutz wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Markt Allhau 1+ goals
74%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
39%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
15%
Deutschkreutz 1+ goals
82%
Deutschkreutz 2+ goals
51%
Deutschkreutz 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
40%
Deutschkreutz (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Markt Allhau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Deutschkreutz away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.70 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Markt Allhau attack 1.00 + Deutschkreutz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deutschkreutz attack 1.65 + Markt Allhau defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Markt Allhau scores more
30%
level
24%
Deutschkreutz scores more
46%

Deutschkreutz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deutschkreutz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Markt Allhau 0–2 Deutschkreutz

Deutschkreutz beat Markt Allhau 2-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at z-immobilien arena in Markt Allhau.