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Maritzburg Utd vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
2/12/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Maritzburg Utd45%
×Draw29%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
1.24
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.88

Maritzburg Utd creates 41% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 76 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.72

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.45

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
74%
Maritzburg Utd or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
71%
Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
55%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
20%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
71%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
35%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
13%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
59%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
22%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
63%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
45%
level
29%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
26%

Maritzburg Utd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Maritzburg Utd 0–1 Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila beat Maritzburg Utd 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 12, 2021.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.