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Maritzburg Utd vs Supersport United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Supersport United
Supersport United
9/9/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maritzburg Utd37%
×Draw30%
Supersport United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
1.08
Supersport United
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 104 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Supersport United
0.97

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Supersport United
1.13

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Supersport United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
67%
Maritzburg Utd or Supersport United
70%
Draw or Supersport United
63%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
15%
Supersport United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
66%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
29%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
10%
Supersport United 1+ goals
63%
Supersport United 2+ goals
26%
Supersport United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
53%
Supersport United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Supersport United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Supersport United attack 0.97 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
37%
level
30%
Supersport United scores more
33%

Maritzburg Utd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritzburg Utd vs Supersport United

Supersport United beat Maritzburg Utd 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.