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Maritzburg Utd vs Stellenbosch — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
B. Hlongwane 85', 12'
T. Tlolane 57'
2/28/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 18Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maritzburg Utd35%
×Draw30%
Stellenbosch35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
1.02
Stellenbosch
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 104 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Stellenbosch
1.01

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Stellenbosch
1.01

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Stellenbosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
65%
Maritzburg Utd or Stellenbosch
70%
Draw or Stellenbosch
65%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
13%
Stellenbosch wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
64%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
27%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
8%
Stellenbosch 1+ goals
64%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
27%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
50%
Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
35%
level
30%
Stellenbosch scores more
35%

Maritzburg Utd at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
B. Hlongwane
41'
G. Scott← M. Matsi
45'
Granwald Scott
57'
T. Tlolane↳ B. Hlongwane
65'
L. Skelem← A. Robertson
66'
Sibusiso Mthethwa
69'
Ryan Moon
69'
W. Isaacs← D. Franco
72'
Mark Van Heerden
77'
J. Moseamedi← T. Kutumela
80'
M. Timm← K. Buchanan
85'
B. Hlongwane↳ T. Tlolane
90'
B. Shandu← R. De Reuck

Possession

55%Maritzburg

Shots

13Maritzburg

Statistics

MaritzburgStellenbosch
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots11
7Corners5
4Fouls4
Shots
13Total Shots11
6On Target5
7Off Target6
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
4Fouls4
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Maritzburg Utd vs Stellenbosch

Maritzburg Utd beat Stellenbosch 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 28, 2020.

Goals: B. Hlongwane (12', 85'), T. Tlolane (57').

Maritzburg Utd controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.