Maritzburg Utd 0–2 Sekhukhune United

Maritzburg Utd

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sekhukhune United

8/25/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 2Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Maritzburg Utd36%

×Draw31%

Sekhukhune United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritzburg UtdExpected goals in this matchSekhukhune United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.98

Maritzburg Utd

1.02

Sekhukhune United

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

1.03

creates per match

0.91

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.03

Sekhukhune United

0.91

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.04

Sekhukhune United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Sekhukhune United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw

66%

Maritzburg Utd or Sekhukhune United

69%

Draw or Sekhukhune United

64%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

14%

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

64%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

27%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

8%

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals

62%

Sekhukhune United 2+ goals

26%

Sekhukhune United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

52%

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Sekhukhune United away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Sekhukhune United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sekhukhune United attack 0.91 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more

36%

level

31%

Sekhukhune United scores more

34%

Maritzburg Utd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff