Maritzburg Utd 1–0 Polokwane City: Result & Stats

Maritzburg Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polokwane City

D. Claasen 82'

3/6/2020

Premier Soccer League · Round 18Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maritzburg Utd39%

×Draw32%

Polokwane City29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritzburg UtdExpected goals in this matchPolokwane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.86

Maritzburg Utd

1.04

Polokwane City

0.86

Maritzburg Utd creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

1.03

creates per match

0.69

1.04

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.03

Polokwane City

0.69

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.04

Polokwane City

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Polokwane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw

71%

Maritzburg Utd or Polokwane City

68%

Draw or Polokwane City

61%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

15%

Polokwane City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

65%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

28%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

9%

Polokwane City 1+ goals

58%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

21%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

57%

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Polokwane City attack 0.69 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more

39%

level

32%

Polokwane City scores more

29%

Maritzburg Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Thabiso Semenya

37'

G. Chigova← M. Chibwe

45'

Phumlani Ntshangase

46'

S. Hlubi← B. Booi

59'

J. Moseamedi← B. Hlongwane

59'

G. Nyoni← K. Buchanan

60'

Gabriel Nyoni

71'

M. Timm← P. Ntshangase

78'

K. Muyaba← C. Mashumba

82'

D. Claasen↳ D. Morgan

90'

Sibusiso Hlubi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MaritzburgPolokwane

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots5

8Corners0

12Fouls5

Shots

16Total Shots5

4On Target1

12Off Target4

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls5

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1