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Maritzburg Utd vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
11/21/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 9Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maritzburg Utd33%
×Draw30%
Kaizer Chiefs37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
0.99
Kaizer Chiefs
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 119 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
63%
Maritzburg Utd or Kaizer Chiefs
70%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
67%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
12%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
63%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
26%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
8%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
65%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
29%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
47%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
33%
level
30%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
37%

Kaizer Chiefs at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Maritzburg Utd 0–1 Kaizer Chiefs

Kaizer Chiefs beat Maritzburg Utd 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.