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Maritzburg Utd vs Golden Arrows — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Golden Arrows
Golden Arrows
5/12/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maritzburg Utd41%
×Draw29%
Golden Arrows31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
1.21
Golden Arrows
1.01

Maritzburg Utd creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 120 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Golden Arrows
0.98

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Golden Arrows
1.39

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Golden Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Golden Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
69%
Maritzburg Utd or Golden Arrows
71%
Draw or Golden Arrows
59%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
18%
Golden Arrows wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
70%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
34%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
12%
Golden Arrows 1+ goals
64%
Golden Arrows 2+ goals
27%
Golden Arrows 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
57%
Golden Arrows (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Golden Arrows away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Golden Arrows defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Golden Arrows attack 0.98 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
41%
level
29%
Golden Arrows scores more
31%

Maritzburg Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Maritzburg Utd 3–2 Golden Arrows

Maritzburg Utd beat Golden Arrows 3-2 in Premier Soccer League on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.