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Maritzburg Utd vs Cape Town City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cape Town City
Cape Town City
10/28/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maritzburg Utd38%
×Draw30%
Cape Town City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
1.11
Cape Town City
0.99

Maritzburg Utd creates 12% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 109 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Cape Town City
0.95

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Cape Town City
1.19

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Cape Town City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Cape Town City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
68%
Maritzburg Utd or Cape Town City
70%
Draw or Cape Town City
62%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
16%
Cape Town City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
67%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
30%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
10%
Cape Town City 1+ goals
63%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
26%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
54%
Cape Town City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Cape Town City away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Cape Town City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cape Town City attack 0.95 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
38%
level
30%
Cape Town City scores more
32%

Maritzburg Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Maritzburg Utd 0–1 Cape Town City

Cape Town City beat Maritzburg Utd 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.