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Cape Town City vs Maritzburg Utd — Premier Soccer League 2018

Cape Town City
Cape Town City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
5/19/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Cape Town City47%
×Draw30%
Maritzburg Utd24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Town City
1.24
Maritzburg Utd
0.79

Cape Town City creates 57% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 77 away

creates per match

Cape Town City
1.32
Maritzburg Utd
0.64

allows per match

Cape Town City
0.94
Maritzburg Utd
1.16

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par
Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Maritzburg Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw
76%
Cape Town City or Maritzburg Utd
70%
Draw or Maritzburg Utd
53%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+
21%
Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals
71%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
35%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
13%
Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
55%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
19%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)
66%
Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cape Town City scores more
47%
level
30%
Maritzburg Utd scores more
24%

Cape Town City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Cape Town City 0–0 Maritzburg Utd

Cape Town City and Maritzburg Utd drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Cape Town Stadium in Cape Town.