Maritsa Plovdiv 1–0 Levski Lom: Result & Stats

Maritsa Plovdiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levski Lom

11/16/2021

Second League · Round 11Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv65%

×Draw22%

Levski Lom13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritsa PlovdivExpected goals in this matchLevski Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.69

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.84

Levski Lom

0.69

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 167% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

0.31

1.06

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.54

Levski Lom

0.31

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.06

Levski Lom

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Levski Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw

87%

Maritsa Plovdiv or Levski Lom

78%

Draw or Levski Lom

35%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+

39%

Levski Lom wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals

84%

Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals

55%

Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals

28%

Levski Lom 1+ goals

50%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

15%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)

83%

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.54 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more

65%

level

22%

Levski Lom scores more

13%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff