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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Izvor Gorski izvor — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
1 – 1
Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
9/5/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 5Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv63%
×Draw22%
Izvor Gorski izvor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.84
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.76

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 142% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.88

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
0.63
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.24

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
85%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Izvor Gorski izvor
78%
Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor
37%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
37%
Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
84%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
55%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
28%
Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
53%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
18%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
81%
Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 81 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 2.44 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.84

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
63%
level
22%
Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
15%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritsa Plovdiv vs Izvor Gorski izvor

Maritsa Plovdiv and Izvor Gorski izvor drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.