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Maritsa Plovdiv vs FK Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
7 – 0
FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
5/3/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 33Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv69%
×Draw17%
FK Svilengrad13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.42
FK Svilengrad
0.96

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 152% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 18 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
FK Svilengrad
1.28

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
0.63
FK Svilengrad
2.39

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

FK Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
87%
Maritsa Plovdiv or FK Svilengrad
83%
Draw or FK Svilengrad
31%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
47%
FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
91%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
69%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
43%
FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
62%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
25%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
84%
FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 81 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 2.44 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.42

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
69%
level
17%
FK Svilengrad scores more
13%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Maritsa Plovdiv 7–0 FK Svilengrad

Maritsa Plovdiv beat FK Svilengrad 7-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.