Maritsa Plovdiv vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 52+ matches
Maritsa Plovdiv48%
Dobrudzha25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maritsa Plovdiv creates 50% more chances
Season form · 52 home / 101 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maritsa Plovdiv ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches
Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.54 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.47
Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Maritsa Plovdiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Tsarsko Selo
Montana
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Litex
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Strumska Slava
Lokomotiv Sofia
Pomorie
Chernomorets Balchik
Ludogorets II
Botev Galabovo
Kariana Erden
Pirin Blagoevgrad
NesebarDobrudzhaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Maritsa Plovdiv host Dobrudzha on Saturday, 2 April 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Second League: Maritsa Plovdiv 1–0 Dobrudzha
Maritsa Plovdiv beat Dobrudzha 1-0 in Second League on April 2, 2022.
Goals: P. Atanasov (7').
The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.