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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
2 – 0
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
2/15/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 20Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv69%
×Draw18%
Botev Plovdiv III13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.30
Botev Plovdiv III
0.90

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 156% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
0.63
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
87%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Botev Plovdiv III
82%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
31%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
45%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
90%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
67%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
40%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
59%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
23%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
84%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 81 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 2.44 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.30

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
69%
level
18%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
13%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritsa Plovdiv vs Botev Plovdiv III

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Botev Plovdiv III 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.