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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Belasitsa — Second League 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belasitsa
Belasitsa
8/29/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 7Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv54%
×Draw25%
Belasitsa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.58
Belasitsa
0.88

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 80% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.54
Belasitsa
0.70

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.06
Belasitsa
1.61

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Belasitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Belasitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
79%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Belasitsa
75%
Draw or Belasitsa
46%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
28%
Belasitsa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
79%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
47%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
21%
Belasitsa 1+ goals
59%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
22%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
72%
Belasitsa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Belasitsa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.54 + Belasitsa defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Belasitsa attack 0.70 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
54%
level
25%
Belasitsa scores more
21%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Maritsa Plovdiv 2–0 Belasitsa

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Belasitsa 2-0 in Second League on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.