Maritsa Milevo 1–1 Botev Plovdiv III

Maritsa Milevo

FT

1 – 1

Botev Plovdiv III

10/5/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 10Stadion Maritsa Milevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maritsa Milevo62%

×Draw21%

Botev Plovdiv III17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritsa MilevoExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.94

Maritsa Milevo

2.00

Botev Plovdiv III

0.94

Maritsa Milevo creates 113% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

1.84

creates per match

1.16

0.73

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Maritsa Milevo

1.84

Botev Plovdiv III

1.16

allows per match

Maritsa Milevo

0.73

Botev Plovdiv III

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritsa Milevo+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Milevo ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Maritsa Milevo or draw

83%

Maritsa Milevo or Botev Plovdiv III

79%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv III

38%

Winning margin

Maritsa Milevo wins by 2+

38%

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maritsa Milevo 1+ goals

86%

Maritsa Milevo 2+ goals

59%

Maritsa Milevo 3+ goals

32%

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals

61%

Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals

24%

Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Milevo (draw refunded)

78%

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Milevo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Milevo attack 1.84 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Maritsa Milevo defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Maritsa Milevo scores more

62%

level

21%

Botev Plovdiv III scores more

17%

Maritsa Milevo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Maritsa Milevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff