Marítimo W 1–2 Racing Power W: Result & Stats

Marítimo W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Power W

11/8/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Marítimo W32%

×Draw27%

Racing Power W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marítimo WExpected goals in this matchRacing Power W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.31

Marítimo W

1.13

Racing Power W

1.31

Racing Power W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

0.67

1.95

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Marítimo W

1.47

Racing Power W

0.67

allows per match

Marítimo W

1.95

Racing Power W

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marítimo W+0.00on par

Racing Power W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo W ↓

Racing Power W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Marítimo W or draw

59%

Marítimo W or Racing Power W

73%

Draw or Racing Power W

68%

Winning margin

Marítimo W wins by 2+

13%

Racing Power W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Marítimo W 1+ goals

68%

Marítimo W 2+ goals

31%

Marítimo W 3+ goals

11%

Racing Power W 1+ goals

73%

Racing Power W 2+ goals

38%

Racing Power W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Marítimo W (draw refunded)

44%

Racing Power W (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.95 · 43 matches

Racing Power W away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo W attack 1.47 + Racing Power W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.13

Racing Power W attack 0.67 + Marítimo W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Marítimo W scores more

32%

level

27%

Racing Power W scores more

41%

Racing Power W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Power W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff