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Maritimo vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Maritimo
Maritimo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
3/16/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 26Estádio do Marítimo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Maritimo37%
×Draw27%
União de Leiria36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritimo
1.23
União de Leiria
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Maritimo
1.31
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

Maritimo
1.04
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw
64%
Maritimo or União de Leiria
73%
Draw or União de Leiria
63%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+
16%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals
71%
Maritimo 2+ goals
35%
Maritimo 3+ goals
13%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
70%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
34%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)
51%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.31 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Maritimo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maritimo scores more
37%
level
27%
União de Leiria scores more
36%

Maritimo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Maritimo 2–0 União de Leiria

Maritimo beat União de Leiria 2-0 in Segunda Liga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Marítimo in Ilha da Madeira.