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Maritimo vs União de Leiria — Taça de Portugal 2018

Maritimo
Maritimo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
União de Leiria
União de Leiriaadvanced
1/10/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio dos Barreiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maritimo17%
×Draw19%
União de Leiria64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritimo
1.09
União de Leiria
2.30

União de Leiria creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Maritimo
1.50
União de Leiria
2.85

allows per match

Maritimo
1.75
União de Leiria
0.69

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw
36%
Maritimo or União de Leiria
81%
Draw or União de Leiria
83%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+
6%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals
66%
Maritimo 2+ goals
30%
Maritimo 3+ goals
10%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
90%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
67%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)
21%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.50 + União de Leiria defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.09

União de Leiria attack 2.85 + Maritimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Maritimo scores more
17%
level
19%
União de Leiria scores more
64%

União de Leiria at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Maritimo 0–3 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Maritimo 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio dos Barreiros in Ilha da Madeira.