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Maritimo vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Maritimo
Maritimo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
R. Correia 77'
2/21/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 23Estádio do Marítimo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Maritimo44%
×Draw28%
Sporting CP B28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritimo
1.33
Sporting CP B
1.00

Maritimo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 26 away

creates per match

Maritimo
1.31
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Maritimo
1.04
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw
72%
Maritimo or Sporting CP B
72%
Draw or Sporting CP B
56%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+
21%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals
74%
Maritimo 2+ goals
38%
Maritimo 3+ goals
15%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
63%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
26%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)
61%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.31 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Maritimo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maritimo scores more
44%
level
28%
Sporting CP B scores more
28%

Maritimo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Vladan Danilović
33'
Rodrigo Dias
58'
Raphael Guzzo← M. Cruz
66'
R. Andrade← Xavi Grande
66'
Ibrahima← V. Danilovic
72'
M. Mendonca← E. Felicissimo
76'
Kaua Oliveira← S. Justo
76'
Z. Bafdili← M. Couto
77'
R. Correia
82'
G. Silva← M. Tanlongo
84'
Adrián Butzke
86'
E. Pena Zauner← M. Tejon
86'
P. Borukov← A. Butzke
88'
Raphael Guzzo
88'
Samuel Silva

Statistics

MaritimoSporting
Discipline
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Maritimo vs Sporting CP B

Maritimo beat Sporting CP B 1-0 in Segunda Liga on February 21, 2026.

Goals: R. Correia (77').

The match was played at Estádio do Marítimo in Funchal.