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Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira — Segunda Liga 2018

Maritimo
Maritimo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
11/9/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 11Estádio do Marítimo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Maritimo42%
×Draw28%
Pacos Ferreira30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritimo
1.25
Pacos Ferreira
1.02

Maritimo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Maritimo
1.31
Pacos Ferreira
1.00

allows per match

Maritimo
1.04
Pacos Ferreira
1.19

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw
70%
Maritimo or Pacos Ferreira
72%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
58%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+
18%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals
71%
Maritimo 2+ goals
36%
Maritimo 3+ goals
13%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
64%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
27%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)
58%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.31 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.00 + Maritimo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maritimo scores more
42%
level
28%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
30%

Maritimo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Maritimo 2–0 Pacos Ferreira

Maritimo beat Pacos Ferreira 2-0 in Segunda Liga on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Marítimo in Funchal.