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Marítimo vs Nueva Esparta — Segunda División 2018

Marítimo
Marítimo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nueva Esparta
Nueva Esparta
10/19/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 14Cancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Marítimo61%
×Draw25%
Nueva Esparta14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo
1.56
Nueva Esparta
0.59

Marítimo creates 164% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 38 away

creates per match

Marítimo
1.71
Nueva Esparta
0.58

allows per match

Marítimo
0.61
Nueva Esparta
1.42

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par
Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Nueva Esparta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw
86%
Marítimo or Nueva Esparta
75%
Draw or Nueva Esparta
39%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+
33%
Nueva Esparta wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals
79%
Marítimo 2+ goals
46%
Marítimo 3+ goals
21%
Nueva Esparta 1+ goals
45%
Nueva Esparta 2+ goals
12%
Nueva Esparta 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)
81%
Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Marítimo scores more
61%
level
25%
Nueva Esparta scores more
14%

Marítimo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marítimo vs Nueva Esparta

Marítimo and Nueva Esparta drew 2-2 in Segunda División on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Cancha de Camurí Chico in Caraballeda.