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Marítimo vs Monagas II — Segunda División 2018

Marítimo
Marítimo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Monagas II
Monagas II
10/4/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Marítimo57%
×Draw24%
Monagas II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo
1.71
Monagas II
0.88

Marítimo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

creates per match

Marítimo
1.71
Monagas II
1.14

allows per match

Marítimo
0.61
Monagas II
1.71

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par
Monagas II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Monagas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw
81%
Marítimo or Monagas II
76%
Draw or Monagas II
43%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+
32%
Monagas II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals
82%
Marítimo 2+ goals
51%
Marítimo 3+ goals
24%
Monagas II 1+ goals
59%
Monagas II 2+ goals
22%
Monagas II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)
75%
Monagas II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Monagas II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Monagas II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Monagas II attack 1.14 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Marítimo scores more
57%
level
24%
Monagas II scores more
19%

Marítimo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marítimo 1 – 1 Monagas II

Marítimo and Monagas II drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 4, 2025.