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Marítimo vs Fundacion AIFI — Segunda División 2018

Marítimo
Marítimo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
9/17/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 12Cancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Marítimo59%
×Draw24%
Fundacion AIFI16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo
1.65
Fundacion AIFI
0.73

Marítimo creates 126% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 66 away

creates per match

Marítimo
1.71
Fundacion AIFI
0.85

allows per match

Marítimo
0.61
Fundacion AIFI
1.59

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par
Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Fundacion AIFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw
84%
Marítimo or Fundacion AIFI
76%
Draw or Fundacion AIFI
41%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+
33%
Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals
81%
Marítimo 2+ goals
49%
Marítimo 3+ goals
23%
Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
52%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
17%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)
78%
Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Marítimo scores more
59%
level
24%
Fundacion AIFI scores more
16%

Marítimo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Marítimo 0–0 Fundacion AIFI

Marítimo and Fundacion AIFI drew 0-0 in Segunda División on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Cancha de Camurí Chico in Caraballeda.