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Maritimo vs Aves — Primeira Liga 2018

Maritimo
Maritimo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aves
Aves
2/9/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 21Estádio do Marítimo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Maritimo51%
×Draw26%
Aves24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritimo
1.54
Aves
0.97

Maritimo creates 59% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Maritimo
1.07
Aves
0.79

allows per match

Maritimo
1.16
Aves
2.00

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par
Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

Aves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw
76%
Maritimo or Aves
74%
Draw or Aves
49%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+
26%
Aves wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals
79%
Maritimo 2+ goals
45%
Maritimo 3+ goals
20%
Aves 1+ goals
62%
Aves 2+ goals
25%
Aves 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)
68%
Aves (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.07 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Aves attack 0.79 + Maritimo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Maritimo scores more
51%
level
26%
Aves scores more
24%

Maritimo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Maritimo 0–1 Aves

Aves beat Maritimo 1-0 in Primeira Liga on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Marítimo in Funchal.