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Marítimo vs Atletico el Vigia FC — Segunda División 2018

Marítimo
Marítimoadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
10/15/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - Quarter-finalsCancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Marítimo59%
×Draw24%
Atletico el Vigia FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo
1.71
Atletico el Vigia FC
0.79

Marítimo creates 116% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 104 away

creates per match

Marítimo
1.71
Atletico el Vigia FC
0.97

allows per match

Marítimo
0.61
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.72

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par
Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Atletico el Vigia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw
83%
Marítimo or Atletico el Vigia FC
76%
Draw or Atletico el Vigia FC
41%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+
33%
Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals
82%
Marítimo 2+ goals
51%
Marítimo 3+ goals
24%
Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
55%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
19%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)
78%
Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Atletico el Vigia FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 0.97 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Marítimo scores more
59%
level
24%
Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
17%

Marítimo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marítimo vs Atletico el Vigia FC

Marítimo beat Atletico el Vigia FC 1-0 in Segunda División on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Cancha de Camurí Chico in Caraballeda.