Marítimo 3–1 Angostura FC: Result & Stats

Marítimo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Angostura FC

5/3/2025

Segunda División · Apertura - 6Cancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Marítimo53%

×Draw26%

Angostura FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarítimoExpected goals in this matchAngostura FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.83

Marítimo

1.50

Angostura FC

0.83

Marítimo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

1.71

creates per match

1.05

0.61

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Marítimo

1.71

Angostura FC

1.05

allows per match

Marítimo

0.61

Angostura FC

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par

Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Angostura FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw

79%

Marítimo or Angostura FC

74%

Draw or Angostura FC

47%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+

27%

Angostura FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals

78%

Marítimo 2+ goals

44%

Marítimo 3+ goals

19%

Angostura FC 1+ goals

56%

Angostura FC 2+ goals

20%

Angostura FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)

72%

Angostura FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Marítimo scores more

53%

level

26%

Angostura FC scores more

21%

Marítimo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff