Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Marisca Mersch vs Swift Hesperange — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
12/2/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 14Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch25%
×Draw21%
Swift Hesperange53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.35
Swift Hesperange
2.05

Swift Hesperange creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
Swift Hesperange
2.10

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
Swift Hesperange
1.10

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

Swift Hesperange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
47%
Marisca Mersch or Swift Hesperange
79%
Draw or Swift Hesperange
75%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
11%
Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
74%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
39%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
15%
Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
87%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
61%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
32%
Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
25%
level
21%
Swift Hesperange scores more
53%

Swift Hesperange at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marisca Mersch vs Swift Hesperange

Marisca Mersch and Swift Hesperange drew 2-2 in National Division on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.