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Marisca Mersch vs Progres Niederkorn — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
2/11/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 16Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch30%
×Draw23%
Progres Niederkorn47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.43
Progres Niederkorn
1.84

Progres Niederkorn creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.68

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
Progres Niederkorn
1.25

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
53%
Marisca Mersch or Progres Niederkorn
77%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
70%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
14%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
76%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
42%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
17%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
84%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
55%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
39%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.68 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
30%
level
23%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
47%

Progres Niederkorn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Marisca Mersch 0–3 Progres Niederkorn

Progres Niederkorn beat Marisca Mersch 3-0 in National Division on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.