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Marisca Mersch vs Fola Esch — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fola Esch
Fola Esch
3/6/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 18Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch39%
×Draw22%
Fola Esch39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.83
Fola Esch
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
Fola Esch
1.65

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
Fola Esch
2.06

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

Fola Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
61%
Marisca Mersch or Fola Esch
78%
Draw or Fola Esch
61%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
21%
Fola Esch wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
84%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
54%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
28%
Fola Esch 1+ goals
84%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
54%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
50%
Fola Esch (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + Fola Esch defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fola Esch attack 1.65 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
39%
level
22%
Fola Esch scores more
39%

Marisca Mersch at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marisca Mersch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Marisca Mersch 0–1 Fola Esch

Fola Esch beat Marisca Mersch 1-0 in National Division on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.