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Marino vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Marino
Marino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Marino50%
×Draw27%
Unión Sur Yaiza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino
1.43
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.89

Marino creates 61% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 65 away

creates per match

Marino
1.53
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Marino
0.90
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Marino+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marino or draw
77%
Marino or Unión Sur Yaiza
73%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
50%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+
24%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals
76%
Marino 2+ goals
42%
Marino 3+ goals
17%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
59%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
22%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)
68%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marino scores more
50%
level
27%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
23%

Marino at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Marino 1–1 Unión Sur Yaiza

Marino and Unión Sur Yaiza drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso in Tenerife.