Marino 4–0 Los Llanos: Result & Stats

Marino

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Los Llanos

Mario Barcos 89'

Balaid 48'

Pirri 21', 18' (pen)

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Marino62%

×Draw24%

Los Llanos14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinoExpected goals in this matchLos Llanos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.66

Marino

1.68

Los Llanos

0.66

Marino creates 155% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

0.41

0.90

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Marino

1.53

Los Llanos

0.41

allows per match

Marino

0.90

Los Llanos

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino+0.00on par

Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Los Llanos →

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marino or draw

86%

Marino or Los Llanos

76%

Draw or Los Llanos

38%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+

35%

Los Llanos wins by 2+

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals

81%

Marino 2+ goals

50%

Marino 3+ goals

24%

Los Llanos 1+ goals

48%

Los Llanos 2+ goals

14%

Los Llanos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)

81%

Los Llanos (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Marino scores more

62%

level

24%

Los Llanos scores more

14%

Marino at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

PirriPenalty

21'

Pirri

48'

Balaid

56'

K. Zöllner← Joel de León

56'

Cristian Herrera← A. Keita

56'

Lucas Gil← Josito

56'

R. Sánchez← Xavi Cencillo

61'

Efrén← Balaid

61'

Ibra← Adjona

66'

A. El Mesqi← Eloy

70'

Maxi Mayol← Valiente

70'

Alberto← A. Sarr

84'

Cheikh← Pirri

89'

Mario Barcos

Marino

Los

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Pirri

▼

Sarr

Manager: Willy Barroso

61'▲Efrén←▼Balaid

61'▲Ibra←▼Adjona

70'▲Maxi Mayol←▼Valiente

70'▲Alberto←▼A. Sarr

84'▲Cheikh←▼Pirri

Marino substitutes

EfrénIbraMayolAlbertoCheikh

Manager: Daniel Pérez

56'▲K. Zöllner←▼Joel de León

56'▲Cristian Herrera←▼A. Keita

56'▲Lucas Gil←▼Josito

56'▲R. Sánchez←▼Xavi Cencillo

66'▲A. El Mesqi←▼Eloy

Los Llanos substitutes

ZöllnerHerreraGilSánchezMesqi

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Marino 4–0 Los Llanos

Marino beat Los Llanos 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 23, 2025.

Goals: Pirri (18' pen, 21'), Balaid (48'), Mario Barcos (89').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso in Tenerife.

Marino vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Marino 4–0 Los Llanos