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Marino vs Las Zocas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Marino
Marino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Las Zocas
Las Zocas
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Marino68%
×Draw21%
Las Zocas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino
1.86
Las Zocas
0.57

Marino creates 226% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

creates per match

Marino
1.53
Las Zocas
0.25

allows per match

Marino
0.90
Las Zocas
2.19

finishing

Marino+0.00on par
Las Zocas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Las Zocas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marino or draw
89%
Marino or Las Zocas
79%
Draw or Las Zocas
32%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+
42%
Las Zocas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals
84%
Marino 2+ goals
55%
Marino 3+ goals
28%
Las Zocas 1+ goals
43%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
11%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)
87%
Las Zocas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Las Zocas away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Las Zocas defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.86

Las Zocas attack 0.25 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Marino scores more
68%
level
21%
Las Zocas scores more
11%

Marino at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Marino 1–0 Las Zocas

Marino beat Las Zocas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso in Tenerife.