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Marino vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Marino
Marino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
10/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Marino47%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas III26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino
1.43
Las Palmas III
0.98

Marino creates 46% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 59 away

creates per match

Marino
1.53
Las Palmas III
1.05

allows per match

Marino
0.90
Las Palmas III
1.32

finishing

Marino+0.00on par
Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Las Palmas III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marino or draw
74%
Marino or Las Palmas III
73%
Draw or Las Palmas III
53%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+
23%
Las Palmas III wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals
76%
Marino 2+ goals
42%
Marino 3+ goals
17%
Las Palmas III 1+ goals
62%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
26%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)
65%
Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Marino scores more
47%
level
27%
Las Palmas III scores more
26%

Marino at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino vs Las Palmas III

Marino beat Las Palmas III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso in Tenerife.