Marino 0–0 Las Palmas II: Result & Stats

Marino

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Las Palmas II

1/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 15Campo Municipal de Fútbol Anexo Antonio Domínguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Marino37%

×Draw28%

Las Palmas II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinoExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Marino

1.23

Las Palmas II

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 49 away

1.53

creates per match

1.45

0.90

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Marino

1.53

Las Palmas II

1.45

allows per match

Marino

0.90

Las Palmas II

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino+0.00on par

Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Las Palmas II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Marino or draw

65%

Marino or Las Palmas II

72%

Draw or Las Palmas II

63%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+

16%

Las Palmas II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals

71%

Marino 2+ goals

35%

Marino 3+ goals

13%

Las Palmas II 1+ goals

69%

Las Palmas II 2+ goals

33%

Las Palmas II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)

52%

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.23

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marino scores more

37%

level

28%

Las Palmas II scores more

35%

Marino at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff