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Marino vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Marino
Marino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Marino54%
×Draw24%
La Cuadra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino
1.67
La Cuadra
0.96

Marino creates 74% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 75 away

creates per match

Marino
1.53
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Marino
0.90
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Marino+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Marino or draw
78%
Marino or La Cuadra
76%
Draw or La Cuadra
46%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+
29%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals
81%
Marino 2+ goals
50%
Marino 3+ goals
23%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
62%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
25%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)
71%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Marino scores more
54%
level
24%
La Cuadra scores more
22%

Marino at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino vs La Cuadra

Marino and La Cuadra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso in Tenerife.