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Marino vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Marino
Marino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ibarra
Ibarra
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Campo Municipal de Fútbol Anexo Antonio Domínguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Marino58%
×Draw23%
Ibarra19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino
1.76
Ibarra
0.89

Marino creates 98% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 77 away

creates per match

Marino
1.53
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Marino
0.90
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Marino+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Marino or draw
81%
Marino or Ibarra
77%
Draw or Ibarra
42%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+
33%
Ibarra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals
83%
Marino 2+ goals
52%
Marino 3+ goals
26%
Ibarra 1+ goals
59%
Ibarra 2+ goals
22%
Ibarra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)
75%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Marino scores more
58%
level
23%
Ibarra scores more
19%

Marino at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marino 1 – 1 Ibarra

Marino and Ibarra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Anexo Antonio Domínguez in Tenerife.