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Marino vs Atlético Victoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Marino
Marino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Marino59%
×Draw23%
Atlético Victoria17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino
1.75
Atlético Victoria
0.82

Marino creates 113% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 31 away

creates per match

Marino
1.53
Atlético Victoria
0.74

allows per match

Marino
0.90
Atlético Victoria
1.97

finishing

Marino+0.00on par
Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Atlético Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Marino or draw
83%
Marino or Atlético Victoria
77%
Draw or Atlético Victoria
41%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+
34%
Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals
83%
Marino 2+ goals
52%
Marino 3+ goals
25%
Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Atlético Victoria away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Atlético Victoria attack 0.74 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Marino scores more
59%
level
23%
Atlético Victoria scores more
17%

Marino at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marino 2 – 0 Atlético Victoria

Marino beat Atlético Victoria 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso in Tenerife.